.png)
IPO Market Update: A Busy September, but a Cautious One
September should have been a busy month for US IPOs. Instead, only four operating companies debuted (excluding SPACs), several pulled their offerings, and the two largest AI labs both reportedly pushed their timelines back. The Nasdaq hit record highs over the same period, so this isn't a market-wide sell-off. It's a public market being selective about price, disclosure and timing.
For late-stage private investors, that selectivity is useful information. Public markets give companies a feedback loop and access to capital that private rounds can't fully replace. When companies step back from that loop, it tells us something about how they read demand. When they step into it, as Nscale is about to, we get a live test of how public investors value a category. Below is a rundown of what happened this month and what we're watching next.
Anthropic's S-1 leads with risk
Reuters got an early look at Anthropic's prospectus on Sept 28. The document is still under embargo, but its structure stands out. About 80 of its 261 pages cover risk factors, nearly double the 48 pages describing the business. SpaceX's prospectus used about 38 of 277 pages on risks.
The risk section goes further than most tech filings. Anthropic warns that advanced AI could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity." It lists model behaviors such as self-preservation, attempts to resist shutdown and conduct "resembling blackmail." It also discloses that about 6% of research compute went to safety work during a sample week in July.
Timing has moved as well. The Wall Street Journal reported that Anthropic pushed its target listing from October to November, so it can include third-quarter results. The same report cited a potential valuation near $2 trillion and a raise of up to $100 billion. Anthropic has not confirmed the timing or either figure.
The first financial details are starting to surface too. Per Reuters, the prospectus shows 2025 revenue grew twelvefold to nearly $4.6 billion, alongside $518 billion in future cloud, compute and infrastructure obligations. Growth has accelerated sharply since then, with the New York Times and others putting Anthropic's annualized run rate at about $65 billion in July, as Axios summarized.
We'll publish a fuller review once the complete filing is public. One early caution: headline FY2025 GAAP revenue and gross margin alone won't tell you much about how to value a company growing and investing at this pace.
OpenAI turns to a private bridge round instead
OpenAI is taking a different path. Sam Altman has called this an "ill-advised" year for an IPO. Asked on CNBC on Sept 29 whether 2027 was the plan, he said, "I don't have a particular timeline in mind." He tied any listing to first running "a few safety cases," and said he didn't want to take on the challenges of being a newly public company "while I think things feel so in flux." OpenAI also said this week it would not release its latest model, GPT-6.1 Astra, because it didn't meet internal safety standards.
Instead, OpenAI is going back to private investors. Bloomberg reported on Sept 29 that it aims to raise at least $30 billion at a valuation of about $1.4 trillion before the new money, as a bridge round in place of an IPO. That's up from the $1.2 trillion Bloomberg reported as under discussion earlier this month, and well above the $852 billion post-money valuation of its $122 billion round in March. Talks are early and could change, and OpenAI declined to comment. The business is growing fast. Axios reported on Sept 29, and Reuters confirmed through its own source, that OpenAI's annualized revenue is nearing $70 billion. That's up more than 70% since the start of the third quarter, with enterprise revenue more than doubling. OpenAI also added more consumer revenue in the third quarter than in all of 2025. Neither report included expenses.
This matters for Anthropic and for late-stage private markets more broadly. If OpenAI stays private, Anthropic is likely the first frontier lab to test public demand, without competing with OpenAI for IPO dollars. A $30 billion private round at a trillion-plus valuation also shows how much capital private markets can now supply at the very top end. Listing versus staying private is increasingly a real choice, even for the largest companies.
Starship reaches orbit as SpaceX works through its lockups
On Sept 28, Starship reached orbit for the first time on its 14th test flight. It deployed all 26 of its next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, and SpaceX says one Starship launch carries as much Starlink capacity as 20 Falcon 9 flights. The flight wasn't flawless. The upper stage lost one of its six engines, and SpaceX brought it down after about 90 minutes instead of the planned nine hours. The stock rose about 1% in early trading, then turned negative after the early end was announced.
The milestone came days after SpaceX's second major lockup release on Sept 24, which made about 328 million more shares eligible to trade. The first release on Sept 9 was followed by a 3.9% drop. SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share, and more lockup releases are scheduled through June 2027.
The pattern is worth noting for anyone holding pre-IPO shares. A listing doesn't end the liquidity story. Staggered unlocks add supply over many months, and operating news like Starship can matter as much as the unlock calendar.
OURA joins a growing list of postponed IPOs
ŌURA postponed its Nasdaq IPO on Sept 29, citing "uncertainty in the IPO market." It had launched the offering the week before, seeking up to $2.2 billion at $40 to $44 per share, a fully diluted valuation of about $15.6 billion. ŌURA is profitable, reports 5.7 million paid members and expects revenue growth of about 90% for FY2026. CEO Tom Hale said the company has "the luxury of choosing our moment."
ŌURA isn't alone. Bloomberg reported on Sept 22 that only nine of the more than two dozen companies that filed since July had listed. September ended with just four US operating-company IPOs, excluding SPACs: ADARx Pharmaceuticals, Electra Therapeutics, Orion180 Insurance and American Savings Bank. Two of the four trade below their IPO price.
The backdrop is mixed. The Nasdaq is near record highs, but recent Fed rate increases, volatile energy prices and swings in AI stocks have made investors pickier. Companies with strong private funding options can potentially afford to wait, but there's never guarantees on an IPO window.
Shein shows how fast the public market reacts
Shein is a reminder of why some companies are waiting. It raised $1.7 billion in its Hong Kong IPO at a valuation of about $26 billion. On Sept 29, its shares fell as much as 14% to a record low after its first results as a listed company.
The numbers explain the reaction. Second-quarter profit fell 67% to $228 million, and revenue grew just 1% to $11 billion. Revenue dropped 14% in Europe and 6% in the US, mostly because customs exemptions for low-value goods have ended. Shein responded by raising prices and cutting online ad spend in Europe.
The public market can be tough and unforgiving. But it also gives companies a clear read on what investors will pay for, and that feedback loop has real value when it's used well.
Nscale will test public demand for neoclouds
Nscale is heading the other way. The London-based AI cloud provider filed on Sept 18 for an NYSE listing under the ticker NSCL, with Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley among the lead underwriters. It is reportedly seeking a valuation of up to $35 billion. A price range hasn't been set.
The filing shows both the opportunity and the risk. First-half 2026 revenue was $140.6 million, up 13x from a year earlier. Contracted backlog reached $103.4 billion, though much of it isn't yet firm. The net loss for the half was $1.02 billion, and management flagged "substantial doubt" about the company's ability to continue as a going concern. Before listing, Nscale raised $3.36 billion in convertible notes led by Third Point, including a $1 billion commitment from Nvidia. Nvidia is also Nscale's largest supplier, which raises fair questions about the circular nature of AI financing markets.
Nscale's peers are funding themselves privately instead:
Lambda also closed a $926 million investment-grade loan backed by GPUs in August. How Nscale prices and trades will tell us whether public investors value neoclouds anywhere near the private rounds above.
What we're watching
Anthropic's full S-1. We want the segment detail, compute commitments and margin trajectory, not just headline FY2025 figures.
OpenAI's bridge round. Final terms will set a fresh private benchmark just as Anthropic prices publicly.
Nscale's price range and first weeks of trading. It's the cleanest public read on neocloud valuations ahead of Crusoe, Fluidstack and Lambda.
Whether postponed deals come back. ŌURA, Holtec and Bamboo returning in Q4 would signal the window is reopening.
SpaceX trading around future unlocks. More supply arrives through June 2027, alongside Starship and Starlink milestones.
The common thread is price discovery. Companies with strong private options are choosing their moment, and the ones that do list are giving us real-time data on what public investors will pay. For late-stage private investing, that data is one of the most useful inputs we have.
Disclosure: Funds managed by PrePublic Equity Partners have indirect economic exposure to Anthropic and SpaceX through SPV investments. This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any security. Information is drawn from third-party reports believed to be reliable but not independently verified, and figures reported by the press may change. PrePublic Equity Partners, LLC is an independently operated investment manager that is majority owned by AVG AM Holdings, LLC, an affiliate of Alumni Ventures. PEP makes its own investment decisions and operates independently of the Alumni Ventures investment platform.
Care to get more insights and access to our research? Fill out the form below.
Sources
RESEARCH DISCLOSURE This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It represents independent thematic analysis prepared by PrePublic Equity Partners ("PEP") and is intended to discuss industry trends and company dynamics in the private markets. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment product. PEP is not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer. Any offer or solicitation relating to securities will be made only through definitive offering documents to eligible investors. PEP and its affiliates may hold financial interests in companies discussed herein and reserve the right to trade such positions at any time without notice. Private market investing involves significant risk, including illiquidity and potential loss of principal. All data is sourced from publicly available information and has not been independently verified.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE This content is published by PrePublic Equity Partners ("PEP") for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, or solicitation of an offer to buy, any security. No such offer or solicitation is made except by means of a confidential Private Placement Memorandum or other definitive offering documents delivered to eligible investors only. PEP is not a registered investment adviser with the SEC or any state securities regulator. Nothing in this article should be construed as personalized investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. All views are the opinions of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Private market and pre-IPO investing involves a high degree of risk, including illiquidity, potential total loss of principal, and reliance on unverified private company data. Past analytical observations are not indicative of future results. PEP and its affiliates, officers, or employees may hold financial interests in companies discussed in this article. PEP reserves the right to buy or sell such positions at any time without notice. PEP does not receive compensation from issuers mentioned in its research. PEP is an independently operated subsidiary of Alumni Ventures, LLC.
Comments